The wind at Wrigley played a huge factor in this game. There were several occasions where players on both teams made solid contact, but the wind kept the ball in the park until Baez's shot. Kris Bryant and Buster Posey both hit doubles that looked like homers off the bat, but the ball ended up getting knocked down and kept in the yard. Even Baez's homer barely made it out: when he swung, you could tell the ball was going out, but the ball landed in the basket on the fence above Wrigley's famous ivy, just squeaking over the wall to give the Cubs the one-run lead that they needed.
Aroldis Chapman finished the game off for the Cubs, and as usual, he was throwing absolute gas. He threw 21 pitches, and a good chunk of them were 100 MPH or more. However, he was helped out by some fuzzy umpiring on the first batter he faced. On a 3-2 count, Giants centerfielder Gorkys Hernandez checked his swing and was called out on the appeal to the first base umpire. It didn't appear that Hernandez went around on his swing, which would have resulted in a walk and a completely different inning because of Posey's double in the left-center gap. Whether or not the call was right, Chapman ended up closing the game on a ground ball fielded by - who else? - Baez, and the Cubs took a 1-0 lead in the series.
I really, genuinely thought the Giants were going to win this game. Maybe it was recency bias because Wednesday night's Wild Card game was so similar, but it just seemed like a classic Giants-in-an-even-year playoff victory: they ride an excellent game from their starter, bide their time, and then some no-name comes up with a huge hit and the Giants win 1-0 or 2-1. The Cubs actually ended up pulling a Giants: they waited for the right moment to pounce, and then Baez took advantage of one of Cueto's very few mistakes. This is a huge win for the Cubs: because of the presence of Madison Bumgarner, it's important that the Cubs win the first two games of the series at Wrigley. They face former Cubs ace Jeff Samardzija tomorrow, and they need to win if they want to move on to the NLCS. If they lose tomorrow, they go to San Francisco tied 1-1, face Bumgarner and probably lose, and then have to win in San Francisco down 2-1 and win Game 5 to advance. They're starting Kyle Hendricks tomorrow, who led the team in ERA this season. If the Giants want to get to Hendricks, they're going to have to be patient: Hendricks generally isn't a power pitcher and relies more on batters chasing his pitches to get outs. If the Giants can work the count against Hendricks, they can come away with a victory and swing the series drastically in their favor.
I also think whoever wins this series wins the National League pennant. Both teams here can easily beat both the Dodgers and the Nationals, so a series victory here could very well mean a fast track to the World Series. Let's see how this one plays out.